Free Shipping

The nice people at Zippycart and I had a fun exchange about free shipping strategy.

Please click here and visit Zippycart to read my take on Free Shipping as a part of a catalog/e-commerce business model.

And please click here to visit Zippycart, read their take on Free Shipping!

Now that you've read each perspective, why not leave a comment to describe your perspective regarding Free Shipping. Join the discussion about Free Shipping as a profitable component of an e-commerce business model.

The Free Shipping Death Spiral

I will preface this by saying that I don't have a problem with free shipping --- in fact, if you want to run you business model by offering free shipping 24/7/365, have at it!

It is the promotional nature of free shipping that sets the customer file into a free shipping death spiral, especially when our businesses need shipping/handling revenue to maintain profitability.

Run a unique Multichannel Forensics analysis, creating six segments.

1. Pays For Expedited Shipping, January - October.
2. Pays For Regular Shipping, January - October.
3. Takes Advantage Of Free Shipping Promo, January - October.
4. Pays For Expedited Shipping, November - December.
5. Pays For Regular Shipping, November - December.
6. Takes Advantage Of Free Shipping Promo, November - December.

The free shipping death spiral happens when customers in segment (6) are in isolation with segments (1) (2) (3) (4) (5).

The free shipping death spiral happens when customers in segment (3) are in isolation with segments (1) (2) (4) (5), but are in equilibrium with (6).

The free shipping death spiral happens when the conditions above exist, combined with customers in segments (1) (2) (4) (5) being in equilibrium/transfer with customers in segments (3) and (6).

The free shipping death spiral happens when newly acquired customers enter via (3) and (6), then follow the conditions above.

Under these conditions, those who shop via free shipping will only shop via free shipping, and those who shop via free shipping during the holidays will only shop in the future via free shipping during the holidays. Even worse, customers who used to pay for shipping are leaking into free shipping, then not paying for shipping again.

If your business can be highly profitable under these conditions, no worries --- though I'd ask why not go to a free shipping 24/7/365 business model?

Even if we're locked into the free shipping death spiral, we can mitigate impact in segments (3) and (6) by minimizing January - October marketing activities that offer regular shipping charges, and in segment (6), by simply minimizing all marketing activities from January - October.

Six Steps To A Well Executed Free Shipping Or %-Off Campaign

Read through each step, and ask yourself if your brand follows these steps.

Step 1: Always Execute A/B Tests. It's a good idea to make sure that some of your e-mail marketing list or catalog marketing list or paid search keyword campaign does not receive the promotion, and measure the performance of customers who receive the promotion vs. those who do not receive the promotion.

Step 2: Measure A/B Tests Long-Term. I cannot stress this enough. If you execute a free shipping test in November, re-visit the results of the test next May or June. Seriously. Measure the short-term impact and long-term impact. If you see a 20% lift in weeks 1-3 (the test period), and a -20% lift in weeks 4-26, you know that the promotion did not help your brand --- at all! Few folks actually execute this level of testing discipline. Those who do know secrets that the rest of us fail to understand.

Step 3: Quantify Incremental Orders And Flunked Orders. Incremental orders are those that were generated because of the promotion. Flunked orders are those that would have happened anyway, but now you gave away profit that lowers your bonus amount. If the test/control groups suggest that the promotion gave you a 20% increase in sales, while almost all of the orders happened with the key-code, then you know that 80% of the orders would have happened anyway. Flunked orders are bad --- they are orders where the customer believed in your brand, and would have spent hard-earned dollars that generate profit. We choose to flush that profit away. See Step 2 to understand if flunked orders generate long-term profit.

Step 4: Quantify "Staying Power". At Eddie Bauer, we measured the incremental value of the promotion by day. If the promotion lasted three weeks, we measured the lift by day. Those who execute this style of analysis know secrets about the staying power of tests that the rest of us simply make guesses about. Staying power is important, because if a promotion loses impact after a few days, you're required to constantly pull promotions off the board, then put them back up a few days/weeks later. And that isn't healthy for a brand --- it is like constantly hitting the gas pedal and then hitting the brakes while driving a car on the freeway. It means you are shifting power away from merchandise and to promotions. That's not a good thing --- you're in business to sell merchandise, not to sell promotions and gimmicks.

Step 5: Understand Who Utilizes Promotions. We don't do nearly enough of this, do we? Good analytics teams profile the customers who take advantage of promotions. Are they the best customers? Full price customers? Sale customers? Promotional customers? New customers? Lapsed customers? After profiling the audience, measure the long-term value of the customers utilizing promotions, comparing them to the customers who pay full price and pay for your bonus check.

Step 6: Understand Channel Dynamics. There's nothing wrong with executing promotions in e-mail campaigns and not in other advertising channels. But it is important to understand what this does to your business. Do the promotions cause e-mail subscribers to not buy from full-priced catalog marketing? If so, adjust the contact strategy accordingly, and realize that your e-mail marketing strategy lowers response in your catalog marketing channel (or vice versa). And seriously consider why your e-mail subscribers are more deserving of discounts and promotions than all other customers.

Free Shipping: Today Only

Speaking of selling money, valuing it over merchandise, can you find any place in this e-mail where Lands' End is promoting merchandise?

This isn't a criticism of Lands' End. Instead, this is an illustration of our addiction to money & gimmicks. It's obvious there is an inventory problem that requires an e-mail message like this, and to cure the inventory problem, we, without hesitation, elect to poison the e-mail customer file. And then next spring, we'll wonder why we generate $0.04 per e-mail marketing message when promoting full-price outerwear, forcing us to promote free shipping again.

Free Shipping 24/7/365

One of our loyal readers left a comment recently, suggesting that it was ok to run a free shipping or 20% off offer if you gave up $7 of margin but increased profit by $8 due to increased response.

I've run hundreds of p&ls for free shipping or %-off promotions, always having to prove that the promotion would be profitable.

So when this reader suggested that it was acceptable to run the promotion because it is more profitable to do so, it raised a theoretical question:


If the promotion is truly more profitable, then why isn't the promotion part of your standard business model? In other words, if it is truly more profitable, why ever stop running the promotion? Why stop running the promotion and then accept less sales, and less profit? Aren't we here to maximize sales and profit?


Discuss.

Social Media, Competitive Intelligence, And Web Analytics

Have you ever wondered why I occasionally write obtuse articles like this one on free shipping at Lands' End (check the organic/natural results for Free Shipping Lands' End on Google).

Or this article about Williams Sonoma and Multichannel Growth?

Or an article about Abacus, a popular co-op in the multichannel catalog world?

All are part of a strategy to gain what I call "Competitive Intelligence".

Maybe you noticed that Father's Day is just around the corner? There's a veritable plethora of folks who are interested in getting Dad a lightweight coat from Lands' End. They also want free shipping. Because I wrote the article about Lands' End free shipping, Google sends visitors to my site. In kind, I use Google Analytics and SiteMeter (here are my site statistics) to understand the rhythm around free shipping for Father's Day. I get to see the build-up prior to Father's Day, the days customers are most interested in obtaining Free Shipping, and the drop-off prior to shipping cutoffs.

Now if I can do this with my humble little blog, imagine what L.L. Bean could learn about Lands' End, Eddie Bauer, Orvis, you name the competitor, by hosting comparable content? And imagine how much more effective these brands would be, given their scale, compared to my humble efforts?

Miller Brewing Company accomplishes this style of competitive intelligence with their "Brew Blog", writing about their competitors on a daily basis.

This stuff isn't rocket science.

For me, the Lands' End example is more fun than anything else. More important is the work I do to understand my competitors.

For instance, I frequently write about matchback analysis, especially as it relates to co-ops like Abacus. Because Multichannel Forensics indirectly compete with matchback programs from companies like Abacus, it is a good thing for me to have folks searching for matchback solutions, searching for products from Abacus, to visit my site.

I get to track the evolution of terms that folks use. Catalog marketers use the phrase "Lifetime Value" to understand the long-term potential of customers. Online marketers and E-Mail marketers seem to prefer the term "Return on Investment" or "ROI". If I want to partner with online marketers on long-term customer value studies, I won't attract them to my site by writing about Lifetime Value.

I also have numerous competitors, folks who provide similar products and services to those offered by yours truly. By writing about these folks, or by hosting their RSS feed on my site, I get occasional visitors from Google who are searching for information about my competitors. I assure you, this information is very enlightening!! I get to see who the companies are that want to hire my competitors. I get an idea for the type of service the company has a need for. If necessary, I adjust my content, products, and services accordingly. I get to see the articles you like, ones written by my competitors.

Once, a competing organization fired a long-standing and high-ranking employee. The company announced the firing on a Tuesday. One day earlier, I had numerous visitors who arrived via Google searches that combined the competing brand name and the name of the individual who was fired. If I wanted to, I could have fact-checked the story and "scooped" the mainstream media.

Hosting a blog is so much more than the social media pap spewed by the punditocracy. The competitive intelligence gained from this effort means everything to a small business like mine. And best of all, the tools needed to obtain the competitive intelligence are free. FREE!

Now imagine for a moment what your brand could accomplish with a combination of Social Media, Competitive Intelligence, and Web Analytics?

Lands' End Free Shipping. Do You Follow The Rules?

At dinner Thursday evening, a guest asked me about my profession. When I mentioned the companies I've worked for, she said, "Oh Lands' End! Did you know that I get free shipping from Lands' End on every order?"

She told us that she assembles her order online, then calls the 1-800-356-4444, and reads the items residing in her shopping cart. Then she "gets crabby", telling the agent she will not pay for shipping and handling. The agent, being a kind, humble person from Southwestern Wisconsin, waives the $16.95 fee on her $210 order.

The obedient soul who follows directions pays 8% more than the crabby individual.

I've sat in executive meetings where this topic comes up. In every case I can remember, my leadership partners and I elected to give a better price to the crabby customer.

Our industry will have made progress when we figure out how to not be punitive to kind customers who follow the rules.

Free Shipping

Every once in awhile, marketing experts point out the problems with shipping and handling costs. Granted, it might not be fair to charge $8.00 shipping on a $2.00 item. Now, let's review some facts.

Fact: It costs money to ship merchandise to a customer. Think about the last time you sent Christmas gifts to your family in Florida, or Oregon. Did you get to do that for free, or did the USPS, UPS or FedEx demand to cover their costs and earn a profit to ship your gifts to your family?

Fact: Many companies profit from shipping and handling. Obscene profit from shipping and handling probably is wrong, we can all agree on that. Let me ask you a question ... is it wrong for Apple to markup the iPhone at levels far greater than competitors markup their phones? Brand experts seem to love the fact that Apple really hammers the customer because they have 'brand equity'. Every company picks and chooses how it prices items. Some companies make their money on gross margin, others on shipping and handling, others on volume. The customer ultimately decides 'what is right', she votes with her pocketbook.

Fact: Customer loyalty is fickle. Really, really fickle. Pundits and bloggers proudly proclaim how they will change their own behavior and no longer support these awful companies that charge for shipping and handling. Customers sometimes act differently.

• In 1999 at Eddie Bauer, we tacked on a $3.00 'handling' fee, on top of wildly expensive shipping fees. Customers never flinched. A few complained. Annual online/catalog retention rates did not change. Customers did not change their behavior.
  

• In 2005 at Nordstrom, we reduced shipping and handling from an average of $10 to $17 per order, down to a flat fee of $5.00 per order. That seems reasonable, doesn't it? Go ask somebody at Nordstrom if annual online/catalog retention rates increased, stayed the same, or decreased.
  

Fact: Zappos has free shipping, but Zappos prices items at a more expensive level than competitors. We love to tell the story that Zappos has free shipping. Yet, the items they sell cost about $3.00 more than at comparable online retailers. Buy five pair of shoes, and you're paying $15.00 more than you are at Macy's. We can probably all agree that a $3.00 fee per item is a fair cost to ship an item, but it isn't truly "free shipping", is it?

Free shipping is a shell game. A brand that truly leverages free shipping is hoping that the increased brand loyalty offsets the loss in shipping/handling revenue. As customers, we get to vote for our favorite scheme with our pocketbooks.

Under Pressure

Profit is being squeezed out of our multichannel businesses, especially in the online and catalog channels.

This is an example of what a reasonably healthy online/catalog profit and loss statement might look like today.

Demand	$50,000,000
Merchandise Fulfilled	$45,000,000
Returns	$11,250,000
Net Sales	$33,750,000
Gross Margin	$16,875,000
Less Catalog Marketing	$4,000,000
Less Online Marketing	$2,000,000
Less Pick/Pack/Ship	$4,050,000
Variable Operating Profit	$6,825,000
Less Fixed Costs	$4,050,000
Earnings Before Taxes	$2,775,000
EBT As A % Of Net Sales	8.2%

This business generates $2.8 million profit on $33.4 million net sales, yielding a healthy EBT of 8.2%.

Then, the USPS elects to make mailing catalogs more expensive. If you simply absorb the cost of this increase, your profit and loss statement might look like this:

Demand	$50,000,000
Merchandise Fulfilled	$45,000,000
Returns	$11,250,000
Net Sales	$33,750,000
Gross Margin	$16,875,000
Less Catalog Marketing	$4,360,000
Less Online Marketing	$2,000,000
Less Pick/Pack/Ship	$4,050,000
Variable Operating Profit	$6,465,000
Less Fixed Costs	$4,050,000
Earnings Before Taxes	$2,415,000
EBT As A % Of Net Sales	7.2%

The USPS increase takes a full percent of your Earnings Before Taxes.

Even more interesting, however, is the looming trend toward free shipping and free returns. Long-term, I don't think we can escape this trend. The customer will demand we provide this service for free. A customer will gladly pay $3.00 for a $0.60 cup of coffee at Starbucks, but she won't pay to have a dress shipped from Columbus, OH to her home in Portland, OR.

Free shipping and free returns will put a lot of pressure on the profit and loss statement. If free shipping and free returns drove enough top-line sales to offset the expense, every multichannel retailer would already be offering free shipping and free returns. Let's take a look at the future p&l, after absorbing the expense of free shipping and free returns.

Demand	$55,000,000
Merchandise Fulfilled	$49,500,000
Returns	$14,850,000
Net Sales	$34,650,000
Gross Margin	$17,325,000
Less Catalog Marketing	$4,360,000
Less Online Marketing	$2,000,000
Less Pick/Pack/Ship	$5,890,500
Variable Operating Profit	$5,074,500
Less Fixed Costs	$4,050,000
Earnings Before Taxes	$1,024,500
EBT As A % Of Net Sales	3.0%

Ooops.

Free shipping and free returns are likely to increase the overall return rate, and reduce shipping and handling income, costing our business another $1.4 million of Earnings Before Taxes.

Remember, our business was generating $2.8 million in profit before the USPS increases, $2.4 million after, and maybe $1.0 million after having to move to free shipping and free returns.

Business leaders will be put in a difficult situation. Expenses will have to be cut, in order to maintain a healthy level of profit. I see two areas where this is likely to happen.

First, catalog circulation will be dramatically cut, mostly in low-productivity areas like prospecting. This is why you see our vendor community so up in arms.

The second area will impact the customer. Items with high return rates will not be featured in advertising, and may not even be offered at all, in an effort to lower the overall return rate. Free shipping and free returns will encourage customers to take more risks, but it will encourage businesses to take fewer risks to make the p&l work. Ultimately, the customer is going to lose the breadth of merchandise assortment she has grown used to.

Multichannel CEOs and CMOs: Start planning today for the pending pressure our profit and loss statements will face in the future. This is a good time to test free shipping and free returns (for an extended period of time, not just a few weeks in December), and project the financial impact this will have.

Victoria's Secret --- Free Shipping And Free Returns On Pants

Varien.com talks about Victoria's Secret, and their free shipping and free returns promotion on pants. Kudos to Victoria's Secret for trying an interesting promotion that can benefit customers. It takes courage to incur an average expense of around $10 per order, without $13.95 from the customer to offset the expected expense.

Many multichannel retailers make money on shipping and handling. Zappos, Endless.com and Piperlime are essentially applying enormous price pressure on all multichannel businesses.

This long-term pricing pressure will cause multichannel retailers to reduce expenses elsewhere.

The very same vendor community that is unified in its fight against the USPS will fall victim to the eventual cost-cutting that free-shipping/free-returns is guaranteed to bring to multichannel retailing.

Endless: A Shoe And Handbag Business Courtesy Of Amazon.com

Amazon recently unvieled a new e-commerce business called Endless. Featuring fashionable handbags and shoes, Endless uses a new hook to compete against multichannel retailers like Macy's and online pureplays like Zappos. The hook: Free Next Day Shipping!! Order an item at 1:00pm on a Tuesday afternoon, and you'll have it on Wednesday.

In case you haven't walked into your local UPS store, attempting to ship a product cross-country via next day air, the proposition is not inexpensive. How can this business compete? The following numbers are for illustrative purposes only --- the numbers are not intended to reflect absolute reality at any of the retailers in the example. However, the numbers should be adequate for a directional argument.

Let's assume you are an aspiring woman hoping to purchase the Jessica Simpson Dawson Satchel via an online business. You narrow your choices down to Endless, Zappos and Macy's.

Assuming you live in a state that has a six percent sales tax, the total price for the same item, including tax and shipping, is $248 at Endless, $251.95 at Zappos, and a whopping $281.91 at Macy's. The item will arrive tomorrow from Endless, in three to five days from Zappos, and in five to eleven days from Macy's.

Given these choices, the logical choice is for the customer to purchase the item at Endless.

Can Endless make money doing this? It is possible. At the end of this post, I include a sample profit and loss statement for each company.

The punchline is this: In order for each company to generate the same level of profit from this item, Endless needs to sell 1,000 units, Zappos needs to sell 741 units, and Macy's needs to sell 491 units. If Amazon has efficiencies that make their expense structure cheaper than Zappos or Macy's, the number of units decrease.

Amazon is betting that the Endless business model will cause customers to be 30% more productive than Zappos, and 100% more productive than Macy's, using these assumptions. This gets Endless to a break-even scenario, most likely, on a fixed-cost basis, and generates the same number of dollars of variable profit as Zappos and Macy's.

What do you think? Do you think customers will flock to Endless to take advantage of free next day shipping? Who will be hurt more by this strategy, Zappos, who is directly competing on total price, or Macy's, who has a retail channel that essentially provide "free shipping same day"??


Sample Profit And Loss Statement

Jessica Simpson Dawson Satchel Price Elasticity And Profitability
	Endless.com	Zappos.com	Macys.com
Item Price	$248.00	$251.95	$248.00
Shipping/Handling	$0.00	$0.00	$17.95
Salex Tax (6%)	$0.00	$0.00	$15.96
Total Cost	$248.00	$251.95	$281.91
Delivery Time	1 Day	3 - 5 Days	5 - 11 Days
Estimated Units	1,000	741	491
Demand	$248,000	$186,695	$121,768
Net Fulfilled (90% of Demand)	$223,200	$168,025	$109,591
Less Returns (30% of Demand)	($66,960)	($50,408)	($32,877)
Net Sales	$156,240	$117,618	$76,714
Gross Margin (50% of NS)	$78,120	$58,809	$38,357
Less Marketing	($18,000)	($18,000)	($18,000)
Less Picking & Packing (20% of NS)	($31,248)	($23,524)	($15,343)
Shipping Expense/Item	$17.50	$8.00	$5.00
Less Shipping Expense	($17,500)	($5,928)	($2,455)
Plus Shipping Income	$0	$0	$8,813
Variable Operating Profit	$11,372	$11,357	$11,373
Profit as a % of Net Sales	7.3%	9.7%	14.8%
Profit per Item Sold	$11.37	$15.33	$23.16
Ad to Sales Ratio	11.5%	15.3%	23.5%