Multichannel Forensics A to Z: Equilibrium Mode

As business leaders, we're very comfortable with Multichannel Forensics projects (book, study) that demonstrate products, brands or channels in Equilibrium Mode.

Catalog marketers believe that paper drives customers online and into stores.

E-Mail marketers believe that best practices drive customers into all channels.

Online marketers want to demonstrate the offline benefits of online marketing.

Equilibrium Mode happens when customers are willing to shop in other channels. Say you have 1,000 customers who purchased online in 2007. During 2008, 500 of these customers will buy again, and 150 will buy in stores. The repurchase index for stores (150 / 500 = 30%) illustrate that the online channel is in Equilibrium Mode with stores (any index between 20% and 50% is in Equilibrium Mode). Online customers, in this example, are willing to shop in a store.

The magic of Equilibrium Mode is that customers seldom stay at the same rate of equilibrium --- instead, behavior changes over time. In 1999, catalog buyers seldom purchased online. In 2003, catalog buyers were willing to buy online. In 2008, catalog buyers happily buy online.

The magnitude of the metrics we evaluate are always changing.

And the metrics, when used to forecast the future, illustrate the future trajectory of your business. Given the downturn in the economy, it is important to forecast what the future looks like, important to forecast how a lack of file momentum will drag down business.

Can A Catalog Brand Survive As An E-Commerce Pure-Play?

The April survey question was "Can A Catalog Brand Survive As An E-Commerce Pure-Play, One That Does Not Mail Catalogs?" Here's how you responded to the survey question:

Can a catalog brand survive as an e-commerce
pureplay, one that does not mail catalogs?
Yes, Customers Will Just Shop Online	44%
Yes, But Sales Will Plummet	35%
No, The Cataloger Will Soon Be Out Of Business	21%

The reasonably even distribution of answers is congruent with the data I see across various Multichannel Forensics projects. Some companies would be out of business within a few months. Some companies would see a dramatic decrease in sales. And some companies would thrive.

Yes, Customers Will Just Shop Online:

• Brand has a retail channel that is dominant.
• Online channel is more than fifty percent of direct-to-consumer sales.
  
• Online channel has a broader merchandise assortment than the catalog has.
• Customer never enters catalog key-code when ordering online.
  
• Brand is not "over-mailing" customers.
• Brand is in "Retention Mode".
• Catalog is in "Transfer Mode".
• Customer is largely urban or suburban, age 18-45.
  
• E-Mail and Paid Search performance improves in mail/holdout tests.
  

Yes, But Sales Will Plummet:

• Brand does not have a retail channel, or has a small retail channel.
• Online channel is less than fifty percent of direct-to-consumer sales.
  
• Online channel has the same merchandise assortment as the catalog.
• Customer sometimes enters catalog key-code when shopping online.
  
• Brand is in "Hybrid Mode".
• Catalog is in "Equilibrium Mode".
• Customer is largely suburban, age 35-55.
  

No, The Cataloger Will Soon Be Out Of Business:

• Brand does not have a retail channel.
• Online channel is less than thirty percent of direct-to-consumer sales.
• Customer always enters catalog key-code when shopping online.
• Brand is in "Acquisition Mode".
• Catalog is in "Isolation Mode".
• Customer is largely rural, age 50-80.
  

In my experience, these general guidelines hold up pretty well. We could get away from a catalog marketing program at Nordstrom because our customers largely fell into the first classification --- middle-aged, urban/suburban customers offered a better merchandise assortment online and in stores. But if you are a cataloger of fine cheeses with an older/rural customer base, you'd be out of business without your catalog.

Multichannel Forensics: Calculating Migration Mode

Before we go into various studies, we need to know how to calculate the migration mode of each product, brand, or channel.

Here's an example for the online channel of a multichannel retailer.

Step 1: Calculate the annual repurchase rate for online customers, across all channels. Answer = 55%.

Step 2: Calculate the annual purchase rate for online customers within each channel.

• Total Company = 55%.
• Catalog Channel = 5%.
• Online Channel = 35%.
• Retail Channel = 30%.

Step 3: Calculate the purchase index for each channel, measured as the channel purchase rate divided by the total company purchase rate. Though we will calculate the metric for the online channel, we're only interested in the metric as it relates to the catalog and retail channels.

• Catalog Channel = 5% / 55% = 0.091.
• Online Channel = 35% / 55% = 0.636.
• Retail Channel = 30% / 55% = 0.545.

Step 4: Classify each metric into isolation mode, equilibrium mode, or transfer mode (oscillation mode occurs when two channels transfer to each other).

• Isolation Mode = Index between 0.00 and 0.20.
• Equilibrium Mode = Index between 0.20 and 0.50.
• Transfer Mode = Index greater than 0.50.

• Catalog is in Isolation with the Online Channel.
• The Online Channel Transfers customers to the Retail Channel.

Given the dynamics of this business, customers ultimately migrate from the website to retail stores.

Multichannel Forensics: The Building Blocks

We'll start our Multichannel Forensics series with a quick refresher course.

There are three loyalty modes for every product, brand or channel.

• Retention Mode: When at least 60% of prior year customers purchase again this year (if your business doesn't support a twelve month repurchase period, use a timeframe that is appropriate.

• Hybrid Mode: When between 40% and 60% of prior year customers purchase again this year.

• Acquisition Mode: When fewer than 40% of prior year customers purchase again this year.

We need to classify each product, brand or channel into one of these three modes, so that we can understand the primary way that growth will happen. So many brands are in "Acquisition Mode" and don't realize it, depending heavily on customer acquisition for long-term health.

There are also four Migration Modes that each product, brand or channel fall into.

• Isolation Mode: This happens when the customers in a product, brand or channel do not migrate to other products, brands or channels. For instance, customers who purchase Mens apparel are unlikely to buy Womens apparel. Mens apparel buyers are in "Isolation Mode".

• Equilibrium Mode: This happens when the customers in a product, brand or channel are willing to try other products, brands or channels. For instance, customers who purchase Womens apparel might purchase Mens apparel for their spouse. Womens apparel buyers are frequently in "Equilibrium Mode". This mode is common, and is responsible for all of the interesting dynamics that occur when customers shift from one product line (DVD Players) to another (Blu-Ray DVD Player).

• Transfer Mode: This happens when the customers in a product, brand or channel are actively switching loyalty. Over the next decade, automobile purchasers will actively transfer loyalty from gas-guzzling cars to hybrid cars and other technologies. CEOs need to recognize this mode, and react in a positive way in order to protect jobs.

• Oscillation Mode: Sometimes, customers switch back and forth between products, brands or channels. This is known as "Oscillation Mode". Computer buyers purchase software and peripherals, then switch back to buying a new computer, then switch to software and peripherals, resulting in "Oscillation Mode".

The combination of Loyalty Mode and Migration Mode yield the unique situation a product, brand or channel resides in.

Maybe you are a catalog CEO. If your catalog channel is in "Acquisition/Transfer" mode, your job is to scale back on catalog advertising over time, as your customers won't allow you to grow this channel anymore.

Maybe you are a Merchandise EVP. If your product is in "Retention/Isolation" mode, you thoroughly control your merchandise line. Your customers are loyal to your products, and do not switch loyalty to another merchandise line. You have the potential to be a rock star.

Maybe you are the General Manager of the Online Channel of a Multichannel Brand. If your channel is in "Hybrid/Equilibrium" mode, you have a very interesting channel to manage. Your customers want to shop your store channel, but aren't avid store customers. Strategically, you can influence your customers by the marketing techniques you use. Do you want your customers to shop online, in stores, or anywhere? In many ways, you get to decide!

This week, we'll look at several case studies, examples that help CEOs understand how to manage multichannel complexity!

Nine Ways Catalogs Interact With Websites

Please click on the image to enlarge it.

Spending two days at a multichannel marketing conference helps crystallize one's image of where our industry is heading.

My biggest revelation from 12,000 miles of travel and two days of multichannel discussions is that we have not given business leaders the tools necessary to identify the roles channels/advertising play in what used to be the Catalog industry.

So here are nine ways that catalogs interact with websites. For each classification, think about how different the marketing strategies need to be to yield satisfactory business results. Which of these nine situations is your business classified in?


Dissimilar Customer Audience: When catalog is in isolation, and the online channel is in isolation, you have two completely different customer audiences purchasing from each channel. You have a multichannel business, one that your customers don't use in an integrated manner.

Tries Online, Prefers Catalog: Infrequently, catalog is in isolation while the online channel is in equilibrium. This used to happen in the late 1990s, when catalog customers tried to purchase online, only to find the purchase experience preferable via the telephone. Today, businesses with a target customer between the ages of 65-85 might be in this situation.

Online Channel Is Not Appealing: When customers shop online, then transfer their sales back to catalog (catalog = isolation, online = transfer), you know that the customer does not find the online experience appealing. This usually represents a good time for a site redesign.

Classic Channel Shift: The most common catalog scenario occurs when catalog is in equilibrium and online is in isolation. This means the catalog is driving sales online, and when the catalog succeeds at doing this, the customer tends to stop using the telephone to place future orders. Long-term, this spells trouble for the catalog as a purchase channel, and is a harbinger of significant change for the catalog as an advertising vehicle.

Outside of the catalog industry, think about other business models that are going through this transition (old channel = equilibrium, new channel = isolation):

• CDs to MP3s
• Newspapers to Online News
• Gasoline-fueled Cars to Hybrid/Electric Cars.
• CRT Computer Screens to LCD Computer Screens.
• Desktop Computers to Laptop Computers.
  

Classic Multichannel Business: Multichannel pundits suggest that many catalogers exist in this situation (catalog = equilibrium, online = equilibrium). In other words, in this situation, customers freely pick and choose the channel they wish to purchase in. Products and solutions from the vendor community are frequently created to solve the challenges faced by companies in this situation. Unfortunately, few catalogers are in this situation.

Over-Marketing: Catalogers that offer a myriad of promotions to get customers to purchase online occasionally find themselves in this situation (catalog = equilibrium, online = transfer). The customer shops online only when prices are cheap or promotions make the online channel temporarily irresistible!

Catalog = Brand Advertising: When catalog is in transfer mode, and the online channel is in isolation mode, the catalog marketer is gearing up for a big change. Telephone shoppers are leaving in a mass exodus for the online channel. Once online, the customer won't shop via telephone again. Long-term, the catalog strategy is likely to change for a company in this situation. The catalog will likely evolve into a potentially useful brand advertising vehicle that communicates the broad assortment of merchandise available online.

Catalog = Sales Driver: When catalog is in transfer mode, and the online channel is in equilibrium mode, it is likely that the catalog is a very effective selling vehicle. The customer does not perceive differences between the channels, willing shopping via telephone or website. Better yet, the catalog is causing online orders. Long-term, this business model has a good chance of having a viable catalog advertising vehicle.

Ideal Multichannel Business: I have yet to see a catalog business operate in this mode (catalog = transfer, online = transfer, yielding true oscillation between channels). This would truly represent multichannel nirvana!

Mailbag: When Stores Close

"You talk about what happens when catalogs go away. What happens to sales when a store goes away"?

When stores close, the dynamic between catalog and online sales isn't terribly exciting. Stores frequently operate in "isolation mode", meaning customers shop the store, but are unlikely to shop online, and very unlikely to shop in catalog.

When the store closes, maybe eighty percent of the store base simply won't shop online, or in catalogs, regardless of how powerful your brand is.

The other twenty percent seem to wait awhile, then slowly transition back to the online channel, or catalog channel (so long as the brand advertises to them via catalog).

The most interesting part of store closings happen in multi-store markets. In these instances, Multichannel Forensics provide a rich portrait of the interactions between customers and stores. If you close a store that is in "transfer mode", those customers will quickly shop another store, potentially boosting sales at the other store.

If you close a store that is in "isolation mode", well, then those sales are likely to be lost. That might be fine, especially if the store being closed is unprofitable.

So, when you're thinking of closing a store, take a look at what Multichannel Forensics tell you. Stores in "isolation mode" will result in lost sales when the store is closed. Stores in "equilibrium mode" will result in some sales being reallocated to other stores. Stores in "transfer mode" may send a large portion of their sales to another store. Don't expect magical things to happen online or in catalog when the store closes.

Multichannel Forensics And Executive Leadership

Recall that there are two key elements in Multichannel Forensics.

First, how well do you retain your customers?

• If you retain more than sixty percent of last year's customers (in other words, more than sixty percent of last year's customers purchase again this year), you are in Retention Mode.
• If you retain between forty and sixty percent of last year's customers, you are in Hybrid Mode.
• If you retain less than forty percent of last year's customers, you are in Acquisition Mode.

Second, what do you customers do after they purchase from you?

• Do they only purchase your products, brands or channels (called Isolation Mode)?
• Do they like to try out other products, brands or channels (called Equilibrium Mode)?
• Do they switch to other products, brands or channels (called Transfer Mode)?
• Do they switch back and forth between products, brands or channels (called Oscillation Mode)?

The combination of modes determines the business strategy for a product, brand or channel.

Let's evaluate Circuit City, as an example. It is well documented that customers shop Circuit City via the online channel, then either purchase merchandise in-store, or purchase online and pick up product in the store.

Retail executives manage channels that have very different dynamics:

• The retail channel frequently operates in Retention/Isolation Mode. In other words, last year's store customers purchase in-store again this year, and are not likely to shop other channels.
• The online channel frequently operates in Acquisition/Transfer Mode. In other words, last year's online customers are unlikely to purchase online this year --- instead, the customer shifts purchasing to the store channel.

When business units operate under vastly different modes, leaders are needed to complement the mode of the business unit.

The leader of the online channel should be collaborative, one who does what is best for the total business. Her bonus structure should be based on her ability to facilitate customer purchases within any channel, not just her channel. The strategic development of her channel should be crafted around the natural behavior of her customer --- to shop in stores in the future.

The leader of the retail channel can be a different individual. Teamwork skills and collaboration may not be as important, because this individual has customers who are not likely to switch to the online channel --- and if the customer does switch, it is only to get information about retail merchandise.

Multichannel retailing is all about exploiting the strengths of each channel. It is not about "sameness", not about replicating the customer experience the same way in every channel.

This holds true for the leaders of each product, brand or channel.

In the Circuit City example, it may make sense to have a very experienced leader manage the online channel. This leader should be well versed at collaboration, consensus, humility, leading through others. This leader should be comfortable with not getting credit for all the good she does to make other leaders look good.

Conversely, it may make sense to have newer executives work in products, brands or channels that are in "isolation mode". In these instances, the leader has control over things, and has fewer moving parts to worry about.

All too often, we assign new leaders to smaller business units, business units with the least "risk". In reality, we should think about putting our most talented leaders in the most challenging roles. Those roles tend to happen in "equilibrium" or "transfer" mode.

Where Are Your Customers Going? Part Three Of Multichannel Forensics

If you didn't fall asleep during the first and second installments of my introduction to multichannel forensics, tonight's exploration may be a bit more intriguing.

Recall that we explored how repurchase rates determine how customers flow through your business.

Repurchase rates above sixty percent put you in 'Retention Mode'. Your business will grow from getting customers to purchase more often, and to add items to their purchases.

Repurchase rates between forty and sixty percent put you in 'Hybrid Mode'. These are fun businesses to run, because you can grow via customer acquisition, by getting customers to purchase more often, and by getting customers to add items to their purchases. Of course, customers have to want to purchase more often, or add items to their orders!

Repurchase rates under forty percent land you in 'Acquisition Mode'. These businesses require leaders who have a singular focus on finding new customers.

Yesterday, we talked about an example where catalog customers were migrating online. Today, let's see how catalog, online and retail customers behave.

Migration Probability Table
	Catalog	Online	Retail
New Customers	3,442	9,350	5,937
Repurchase Rates
Corporate	57%	44%	49%
Catalog	29%	4%	3%
Online	35%	33%	5%
Retail	13%	14%	45%
Repurchase Indices
Catalog	51%	9%	6%
Online	61%	75%	10%
Retail	23%	32%	92%
Total Corporate Repurchase Rate =			46%

The repurchase indices are calculated as the repurchase rate divided by the corporate repurchase rate for that channel. Three primary modes, and one secondary mode appear. Let's look at our example.

Isolation Mode: This occurs when all of the repurchase indices are below twenty percent. This means customers are not likely to cross-shop any product, channels or brands. The retail channel is in Isolation Mode. Retail customers have a low catalog index (6%) and a low online index (10%). The retail index (92%) is not used.

Equilibrium Mode: This occurs when at least one repurchase index is above twenty percent, and no repurchase index is above fifty percent. The online channel is in this situation. The catalog index is 9%, so online customers do not cross-shop catalog. However, the retail index is 32%. This means online buyers are likely to cross-shop retail.

Transfer Mode: Executives leading businesses in transfer mode have problems. Transfer Mode occurs when at least one index is above 50%. Look at catalog. The index for retail is 23%, moving catalog to equilibrium mode. However, catalog moves to transfer mode with a 61% index for the online channel. Catalog customers are likely to cross-shop retail. Catalog customers move their loyalty to online.

The catalog executive is sunk. Her customers migrate online at dramatic rates. Her job is to facilitate this transition. She should not expect her business to grow.

The online executive has a mixed blessing. He is fed customers from the catalog channel, this helps grow his business. Notice that his channel is the number one source for new customers. This means he has that as a growth vehicle. However, his customers cross-shop retail.

Because retail operates in isolation (retail customers typically don't cross-shop online or catalog channels in this example), retail is likely to grow and be healthy. It gets customers from catalog, it gets customers from the online channel. Retail does not send customers to other channels.

Your homework assignment: For the products, brands or channels you are interested in, run the table illustrated above, and consider the dynamics surrounding your business. Where do customers come from, where do the migrate to, which products, brands or channels have the best potential for growth?

Once you learn these relationships, how might you alter your marketing strategy to capitalize on the natural flow of customer behavior that your business exhibits?