OMS: Decomposing A Disaster

Time for everybody to pull out their sample OMS worksheets for an exercise (e-mail me for a copy)! And if you haven't secured your copy of Online Marketing Simulations (the book is a perfect Holiday stocking stuffer), you can buy the book via three sources:

1. Via Amazon.com, $19.95.
2. Via Amazon Kindle, $4.99.
3. Via Digital Download at Lulu, $4.99.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled discussion. Open up your copy of the spreadsheet, and take a look at cells C18 - G18. What do you observe?

The average price that a customer is paying, per item, is decreasing over time. In fact, during the next five years, the average price trend is forecast to decrease by about 9%. This accounts for half of the reason why sales are dropping like a rock.

Look at cells C16 - G16. Even though prices are dropping, customers are not ordering more often. One might intuitively think that as prices drop, customers would become more "loyal", right?

Look at cells C17 - G17. Even though prices are dropping, customers are not ordering more items per order. One might intuitively think that as prices drop, customers would be willing to buy more items.

These are simple concepts ... prices, items, orders. And yet, combining simple concepts with Online Marketing Simulations allow you to see a forth-coming catastrophe.

So, I ask you the following question. Can you use Omniture, Coremetrics, Webtrends, Google Analytics, or any other software application to provide you with a five-year view of where your business is heading? If not, give me a holler!